Proposed political boundary changes
19 May 2005 A rough estimate of the effects of the proposed boundary changes to constituencies suggests that if the changes had been in force in this year’s general election, Labour would have had a majority of 53 or thereabouts rather than 67. The Conservatives would still need a lead of 9-11 per cent to win power.
While the Boundary Commission is obliged to work on outdated electorate figures, using the most up-to-date figures possible would involve the transfer of only three more seats from the cities to the shires. While Wales is over-represented, if it were cut down to size it would lose about five Labour and two other seats.
All these changes, which some imagine would eliminate the pro-Labour bias in the electoral system, would merely cut the current majority to around 44. A very narrow lead in the popular vote would suffice to win a Labour majority, while a tiny Conservative majority would require a popular vote lead larger than the party has managed at any election since 1945, with the exceptions only of 1983 and 1987.
The reasons for electoral bias — differential turnout, more or less efficient distribution of the parties’ votes, and tactical voting — cannot be addressed within the current electoral system. If the Conservatives imagine that revising the constituency boundaries can cure the bias, they really are rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.
